Update:
The announcement was finally made last night, and I missed it as usual as I was stuck somewhere finishing up on some stuff that was leftover from last week. Darn!
But that is OK, so at least we have confirmed PKR as contesting Segamat, Pasir Gudang, Ledang, Sri Gading and Sembrong in addition to Johor Bahru, Muar, Batu Pahat and Tebrau.
However Dr Boo had demanded a replacement for Segamat, so we shall just wait and see which one PKR will hand over to its pack leader.
My assessment is, DAP will accept Pasir Gudang or Tebrau as replacement for Segamat, but we shall see.
Original:
I just got back to the office today and spent most of the morning clearing stuff that has been piling on my to-do-list, and prowling for the latest news.
Other than the BN Akujanji, nothing new can be discerned as yet. There is nothing that I can add to the many opinions out there about the BN Akujanji, at least nothing that I feel strongly enough to write about. What I read of the statements of their leaders, the opposition pact are still "negotiating" their seat allocations. Nothing new there either.
My earlier predictions of PKR contesting Segamat was made on the premise that DAP Johor would be fair to their partners. I guess I gave DAP Johor and Dr Boo too much credit, because I thought as a Johorean, he would at least be fair-minded. I should not have put too much trust in human nature.
DAP guys must think that the much hyped "chinese revolution (revolt)" is real and they feel confident that Johorean Chinese are harboring a deep hatred for anything Umno and BN. The way Lim Kit Siang simply instructed DAP Johor to set up their election machinery in Johor Jaya, as if it is theirs for the taking with no consideration at all for PKR, is a measure of their utter contempt for PKR Johor.
PKR Johor, on the other hand, are just so desperate, that they simply swallow whatever being directed their way, pretending everything is hunky dory. All indications seems to be they are willing to just pick up whatever allocated them by DAP and are still hoping that DAP will charitably give them Bakri, for Chua Jui Meng presumably, and maybe Kulai. Totally dependent on DAP for whatever crumbs they might throw your way, huh? You people do not have much self-respect, do you? I am upset on your behalf ...
PAS, being the obedient pets that they are, happily skipped along, placing their candidates in the sure-to-die Malay-majority seats of Johor, at a time when their Malay support is at its lowest. Just too pathetic for words ...
At the moment, BN are most vulnerable in Kluang, Gelang Patah, Bakri, Kulai and Segamat, from the most vulnerable to the least. Since DAP had already indicated Segamat as theirs, it is unlikely they will give away Kulai or Bakri to PKR, unless they are willing to give away their most promising parliamentary representation.
State-wise, Bentayan, Skudai, Senai, Puteri Wangsa and Yong Peng are BN's most vulnerable state seats, and even then I included Yong Peng to make up the numbers. With that, it is very difficult for me to see the unholy trinity making an impact this time around in Johor, unless BN really mess-up with the candidates they field.
Whatever the situation is, I am sure that BN Johor will do their utmost to achieve their 100% win target by fielding their most winnable candidates in places where they are most vulnerable.
winnable candidates from UMNO/BN ?? Siapa ??
ReplyDeletekah..kah..kah.....
after you got paid RM10 per comment, you come here to make silly comment. I pity PR. with quality like this, no wonder there's no hope for PR.
DeleteJgn sombong sgt bro
DeleteEver since the Merdeka, the Johor State and its Sultans have been most supportive of the Rakyat. I was a witness to the release of lands to the Chinese in the 1960's. With the State's enlightened policies, this is one of the many reasons why the BN is strong here.
ReplyDeleteWhat I understand hear ,PKR had been treated like "kuching jalanan" by DAP , just throw anything that they didn't want to PKR ,what a muscle that DAP had in Pakatan.
ReplyDeleteUnlike UMNO being the leading party and the leader of Barisan being demand to give safe seat to their component especially to those must win leader in the component though it could be safe seat for UMNO, yet UMNO had been labelled dictator and raciest party.
What is more fun to them is that UMNO had to make sure that they win the seat ,what an incredible coalition Barisan National has that cannot be find in any other parts of the world. Many may not agreed but that the reality of late, facing UMNO that they have to overcome with,and this was one of the factor why UMNO doing bad in the last GE.
Kucing jalanan has more self-respect than PKR.
Deletethis GE will cement the DAP's status as Malaysia's preeminent opposition party. I have no doubt about it. for PKR and Pas, it will be their Waterloo moment. pity PKR and Pas. they are sacrificing all that they have, and after this GE, their fate, most likely, will be that of being abandoned cats.
Deletethis GE will also be the coming out party of the Chinese. coming out as in being solidly behind the opposition. for this, I have to applaud the DAP for their genius in misleading the Chinese community into thinking that they are fighting for the Chinese community when in fact, they are fighting for the benefits of a select few, i.e the Chinese Anglophiles and Chinese Christians. the rest, they have been, or will be, taken for a ride.
for BN, specifically Umno, this will present opportunities. the expected demise of PKR and Pas at the ballot boxes will further strengthen the position of Umno, thus allowing Umno to reach out to PKR Malays and Pas for a possible Malay unity coalition anchored within the BN.
we are living in interesting times indeed, as the Ancient Chinese used to say. the irony is that the present day Malaysian Chinese have forgotten about "living in interesting times".
Having a 100% or even 90% majority is good for no one. Same goes for PR states. If you have a strong opposition you have to improve and lift your delivery. Everyone can see that this GE will see the opposition focus on the third of the state seats held by MCA, MIC and Gerakan and I see these seats as more exposed than the handful of seats Tinsel mentioned.
ReplyDeleteThose handful mentioned are the 5 most vulnerable seats, in reality, if you consider the marginal seats, there would be 14 state seats at risk.
DeleteMCA, MIC and Gerakan will still see winners in Johor, because Johor Malays are largely unlikely to decide along racial lines. So those MCA, MIC and Gerakan candidates in Malay-majority areas have the greatest potential of winning their seats.
That means Gerakan will definitely win in Pemanis. Bukit Batu will be difficult for Gerakan, but winnable. Skudai will be extremely difficult.
MCA most probably will win in Tangkak, Bekok, Parit Yaani, Paloh, Pengkalan Rinting, and Pulai Sebatang. Fielding Gan Ping Siew in Mengkibol would be suicidal for BN, as that is a winnable seat for them, but we'll see.
MIC will possibly retain Gambir, Kahang, and Tenggaroh. Permas will be dependent upon the candidate fielded by BN, the previous being deemed wanting by the constituents.
Uh .. Bekok should not be in the most probable win for MCA. That's one of the 14 high risk seats.
DeleteIn Johor at least, the Malays will decide whether MCA, MIC and Gerakan stay relevant.
Tinsel, thanks for this analysis and your considered response - Anon 13.19
DeleteJohor is a BN strongpoint because the BN as led by the UMNO with the 14 component parties practised an enlightened policy together with the Royal Sultans since the early days after Merdeka. I saw it with my own eyes that lands were alienated to the Chinese in the 1960s !
ReplyDelete