I have previously shared my analysis of Johor's political landscape and how the opposition parties position themselves to win a number of Johor parliamentary seats in order to capture Putrajaya. I have always maintained that GE13 is not about capturing Johor per se, but to strengthen their Putrajaya bid.
Johor, Sarawak and Sabah became the Pact's frontline states because they have already captured all the possible parliamentary seats in the other states. It must also be noted that their strategy in Johor is different from what is being employed in Sabah and Sarawak, for obvious reasons.
The Pact's chances of winning are greatest in Johor's urban areas with outright Chinese majority, hence the safest seats for them would be Kulai, Bakri, Gelang Patah and Kluang. Except for Bakri, where the incumbent Er Teck Hwa is retained, DAP has brought in their elites to contest in Kulai, Gelang Patah and Kluang. I believe that as far as DAP is concerned, these are the 4 parliamentary seats they are confident of winning. DAP seems to be less confident of Labis, thus the uncertainty of who to field there. However, BN are fielding, in my estimation, winnable candidates in these five seats, and their chances are quite good despite the overwhelming advantage to the DAP.
PAS readily admit that their chances in Johor largely depend on Chinese support for Pakatan, hence they have more or less acknowledged that their chances are slim in all the other seats they are contesting in Johor. However, winning Pulai will be extremely difficult for PAS as they have yet to find any major chinks in BN's armor here that they can exploit. Their support among the Malays have also been severely eroded with recent events affecting their Islamic credibility. Their best chance will be Pulai, the only marginal seat contested by PAS, hence I expect PAS to focus the bulk of their campaigning for Pulai. However, the prognosis is gloomy for PAS in Pulai, and it's not any better in Nusajaya either.
PKR's best hopes are Segamat and Batu Pahat although of the two, PKR's chances in Batu Pahat is higher than in Segamat. In order to win, BN will have to really work hard in Chinese areas and Datuk Chua may need to campaign hard for BN in Batu Pahat instead of in Labis as BN is particular vulnerable for fielding an unpopular incumbent here. However, there is the matter of the hardworking Syed Hamid Ali who had been sidelined in favor of Idris Jusi, which may reduce PKR's chances in Batu Pahat.
The BN citadel of Johor will not fall to the marauders from Singapore, taking a leaf out of the Japanese Imperial Army in 1942. All Malays, Bumiputras, Chinese, Indians and all must rally and unite to keep the BN in place and the marauders out forever.
ReplyDeleteA landslide victory awaits the BN as led by the UMNO with the 14 component parties throughout our beloved Malaysia.
Push hard ! Push hard ! Shove hard ! All hands to the wheel. A big victory awaits !
Johor will show us the way. the way to bury the racism of the DAP. go Johor !
DeleteThere's a happy thought - BN forever. Hahahahaha. Time to be part of history, vote for change and let the politicians know who who is boss - the people.
DeleteJohor will show Rakyat the way to bury the corrupt,racism of the UMNO/BN !!
ReplyDeleterakyat will show johor. not johor will show rakyat la. must be DAP supporters. simple thing like these also don't know.
DeletePenyokong DAP memang kurang cerdik, tapi bongkak dan sombong.
DeleteThe logic here doesn't hold.
ReplyDeleteIn 2008 Johor and Sabah were not touched by the Opposition. Now they have more than just penetrated both states to the point of taking over half the state seats!
Before in 2008 the opposition were manned by beginners. Now those beginners are battle hardened politicians after being in parliment for 4 years.
BN politicians are still being spoonfed and wait for orders from the top to make any move whilst the opposition were given freedom to move whenever necessary.
What does that say about BN's hopes? Not much!
I don't know about Sabah and Sarawak, but I am very certain that Pakatan would not be able to take over half of the state seats in Johor. At the very worst case scenario, Pakatan will only be able to win 14 state seats, 10 of which are outright Chinese majority seats, while four are mixed seats. That means BN would still have 42 state seats over Pakatan's 14. Even then, 8 of those Pakatan wins are marginal wins, i.e. within the plus or minus 5% range, which indicate a winnable BN candidate will make the 5% swing possible.
DeleteThis 13th General Elections has really brought all the races together, the Malays, the Bumiputras, the Chinese, the Indians and all. All of us realize that without the BN with 14 component parties, we as Malaysians and as a Nation are gone. The life-style, the peace, the stability, the prosperity will be with us no more if BN loses. We must not allow this to happen. Unite ! All Malaysians to create a unique country in a troubled World !
ReplyDeleteYou are Absolutely Right! BN has made all the races unite to Fight Against Their Corruption and Abuse of Power.
DeleteWithout BN, this country will no longer be Polarised by Perkasa and Hindraf!
14 Component parties , yes - but don't forget their friends. Why does BN shoot itself in the foot by choosing only one group that it does not contest against and that group has to be Perkasa which has no bn opponents. How are the non-UMNO parties going to work with these guys?
Deleteanon 10.52
DeleteMalaysians unite for one common purpose. Malaysians unite to reject PR because in 2008, Malaysians made a bad mistake in allowing PR to govern 5, then 4 states. It has since been proven that not only is PR corrupt and rotten to the core, but PR is also incompetent.
come May 5, Malaysians will do 2 things.
first, Malaysians will reject PR and secondly, Malaysians will head to the polling stations to vote for BN and return BN to power with a 2/3 majority so that BN can carry out its duty to save Malaysia from the evils brought about by PR.