Different Message to Different Audience

Work is taking over my life nowadays, and I hardly get time to roam about doing my own thing.   Tonight is another long night, doing unglamorous behind the scenes work that take up days of preparation but hardly get a mention.  Some nights I get so tired I hardly have the energy to do anything much before dropping into bed.  But what to do, someone has to do it, I guess, and it's not that I like to be in the limelight anyways.

The BN campaigning in Gelang Patah is simply so low-key that it is almost similar to my job.  Apparently that is the style of campaigning Dato Ghani is most comfortable with, direct face to face with the constituents, without the glam, without the coterie of supporters, without too many attending media.  That was his way when campaigning in Tenang, and that seems to be also his way of campaigning in Gelang Patah.  I was told the PM was down in Pekan Nenas this morning, but I haven't had time yet to look that up.  I will do so later in the evening when I have time to take a break.

What caught my eye was this posting at Bee Kim, (which is also available at NST) and this one at Unspinners.  I am not surprised at the "I am the victim" act by Lim Kit Siang because I have seen on TV how his son played the "victim" melodrama, Guan Eng must have learnt that from somebody.  And I also read about Lim Kit Siang's tears when he moaned about the ROS persecution against DAP, of course at the behest of Umno/BN.  Therefore, any more melodrama by this father and son act no longer surprise me.

Just now I received a text message from a friend who is part of the Chinese community in Taman Ungku Tun Aminah.  In his message he said, "Kelemahan DAP, di kawasan Cina cakap lain, di kawasan Melayu cakap lain."  You see, if that message was sent to me, that message must have been sent to other Malays too by concerned Chinese.

I will just have to make the time to have a long conversation with my friend to find out in detail what he meant by this since I don't understand Chinese, I wouldn't know what was being said in Chinese areas.  I'll write about it when I can wheedle that information out of him, insya Allah.

PS:  Do watch this video at Stop The Lies.
PPS: Do read this too.

Exclusively Yours

I was at Unspinners just now and their latest posting "Kit Siang guna UGUTAN terhadap pengundi Cina yang tak undinya" was rather alarming, because now we really see this line of campaigning being used in Johor.  I haven't received text messages of this kind myself, probably because I am not Chinese, but I find the tone is no different from the intimidating comments I have been getting in this blog.

I knew that plenty of this kind of provocation have been circulating for years, but this is the first time this tactic is blatantly and directly being used to intimidate voters in Johor.  I know for a fact that among the Chinese in Gelang Patah, they are not even supposed to mention the word "BN" in public places, let alone voice any kind of discussion with regards to the merits of BN.  I guess now I understand the reluctance of those uncles to talk about BN these couple of days, they probably have been receiving all kinds of threats on a regular basis lately.

Poor Jason Teoh, he is now being labeled as a traitor to his race simply for supporting the ideals of accommodating relations within BN component parties and making way for Dato Ghani to prove that Johor Chinese are tolerant and not race-biased.  For years Umno Malays in Tebrau, Segamat, Simpang Renggam, Ayer Hitam and Tanjong Piai have been working on the ground to ensure victory of BN's non-Malay, non-Umno candidates.

Now that the Chinese in Gelang Patah are subjected to this kind of politics of race and hatred, we will see whether they will reciprocate the tolerance and acceptance that Malays in Tebrau, Segamat, Simpang Renggam, Ayer Hitam and Tanjong Piai had accorded the various non-Malay candidates they have supported all these while.

And the outcome will tell us whether we can rise above the dirt of ethnic politics and communal hatred being sown by self-serving politicians who have not shown any significant contribution to nation-building.  Or else, we can continue on the path towards ever increasing polarisation and segregation that will only nurture inter-ethnic distrust and bigotry.

Battleground: South

Southern Johor is a region that is now better known as Iskandar Malaysia.  Within this growth region there are 6 parliamentary seats namely Tebrau, Pasir Gudang, Johor Bahru, Pulai, Gelang Patah and Kulai.

So what is the political situation here?  In one word ... HOT.

I find it interesting that Tebrau and Pasir Gudang have gone under the radar of most political commentators and analysts.  These two seats are, in addition to Gelang Patah, the focus of PKR attack in Johor for the past few years.  Admittedly that both are mixed seats with almost identical ethnic composition, comprising of about 47% Malays, 38% Chinese and the rest Indians and Others.

In Tebrau, the Puteri Wangsa seat would be an interesting watch.  We are seeing a three-cornered fight  between BN, PAS and an Independent.  For Tiram, I think that the hardworking and accessible Maulizan Bujang should be able to retain this seat for BN.  Choong of PKR has been working hard in this area since 2008, so Khoo will have his work cut out for him, but I believe that for the moment, the advantage is still with BN.  My assessment: advantage to BN in all three seats.

PKR has also been hammering Pasir Gudang, a mixed seat similar in ethnic composition.  Choong and his boys have been doing the rounds not only to garner support from the Chinese constituents but he also has a team of Malay aides to touch base with the Malay constituents.  One of the local PKR boys would have had a better chance here in Pasir Gudang, but unfortunately PKR and DAP have a similar centrally-controlled strategy that see locals being sidelined to make way for faces unfamiliar with the ways of Johor.

If you think Normala is easy meat in Pasir Gudang because she's new, think again.  She is the Pasir Gudang Umno Division Ketua Wanita, the most hardworking Umno wing on the ground, and I am sure Wanita Pasir Gudang will campaign hard to support her victory here.  My assessment: advantage to BN in all three seats.

As for Johor Bahru and Tanjong Puteri, I doubt that PKR has a chance in either the parliamentary or state seat.  You are talking about going against Shahrir Samad, someone totally synonymous with Johor Bahru that it is almost unthinkable that anyone can beat him here.  And Adam Sumiru is no pushover either.  BN's weak link here is Stulang, although in 2008 BN managed to garner 55% of the popular votes here.  I do think, however, that the Shahrir Samad factor will be the one PKR/PAS/DAP have to overcome here.  My assessment: advantage to BN in all three seats.

As I predicted earlier, if Salahuddin Ayub were to contest in Johor, the only place he would do so would be in Pulai, and so he did.  This is the home turf of Nur Jazlan Mohamed and I doubt that Salahuddin can dislodge him here.  The "semangat BN" abounds in Pulai last night as I took a detour through Pulai on my way  home from work.  My assessment: advantage to BN in all three seats.

Musings: Terror On The Streets

I have refrained from writing about it because I'd rather write about something closer to home, but after watching the news just now, I just had to express my thoughts.

Stories of physical intimidation, campaigning with weapons, intimidation using explosives, arson and general sabotage seems to abound - we are seriously heading towards a dangerous situation.

I thought we were only going to be faced with cyber bullies - the worst thing to happen would be getting your blog hacked, or something like what happened to a number of bloggers these past few days, not that that wasn't awful, but you know what I mean.  What I find scary is that now we are getting into real life physical intimidation and violence that can cause people real physical hurt.

I never imagined this could happen in our country, but when I recall the ever increasing violence of the Pakatan-associated Bersih series, I really shouldn't be that naive not to expect similar elements to take advantage of creating public unrest at a time when large numbers of people gather during campaigning and voting.  There have been many discussions of such possibilities including in blogs and online news portal.

A couple of days ago I read, belatedly, that a Malaysian Spring was launched by Nurul Izzah last week, which, according to Malaysia Chronicle, how  "Classy Nurul" hits back at Raja Nong Chik.  I don't know what that was about and how successful it has been thus far because I haven't seen it anywhere here where I live, but the following is an excerpt of the Malaysia Chronicle article that I googled yesterday.

"Several Bangsar residents whom The Malaysian Insider spoke to called Nurul Izzah an “approachable” politician, while some — who were not even living in Bangsar — said they chose to volunteer for the “Malaysian Spring” campaign to end corruption and government abuse of power."

This story was also carried by the Asian News Channel.

Strange that the term "Malaysian Spring" was chosen as that only brings to mind the destructive Arab Spring of North African and middle-eastern countries that have resulted in vicious cycles of never-ending violence, bringing nothing to those people other than sufferings and misery.

It was supposedly about planting "flowers", which in reality are just flags in PKR colours of turquoise, red and white, at public places and open spaces, organised by the "non-partisan" Ng Seksan.  I don't know how that equates to the season Spring, as no real flowers are involved, unless it is another inference to the Arab Spring.

Maybe it is just me, but I find it very difficult to dissociate the so called Malaysian Spring with the violent forms of campaigning that is now plaguing us.  The first time Malaysian Spring was mentioned was by Anwar Ibrahim in 2011, while the Bangsar initiated Malaysian Spring was launched by his daughter Nurul last week.  And Malaysian Spring was also mentioned here, with such hope that it is almost scary.

Flowers/flags in Bangsar, maybe, but there are bombs, machetes, Molotov cocktails, arson and physical violence elsewhere.  It gives me the creeps to think what may be possible in the aftermath of GE13.  I guess it is more hard work for our guys in blue, and I suspect they have their work cut out for them as we get nearer to D-Day and maintaining peace throughout and afterwards.  Thank you guys, for doing your best to keep us safe.

Reverse Racism

I seriously think that people who call others racists are themselves worse racists because they can't see beyond the race issue.  Case in point, is this NST article by Bee Kim and Suganthi, which I picked up from Bee Kim's place that exemplifies perfectly my view.

With the 18 years of Ghani's track record in Johor as Mentri Besar, the best they can come up with is

"because he is an Umno member and a “racist at heart”, said DAP vice-chairman M. Kulasegaran at a ceramah comprising mainly Indian voters in Taman Kluang Barat on Monday night."

I don't know about elsewhere, but apparently, the DAP line of campaigning is all about race, regardless of who or what he/she is, no matter what he/she has contributed to the people of Johor, as long as he/she is Umno, mind you it is not BN but Umno, then he/she is a racist at heart.  As far as these people are concerned, that's all that matters, the presumed racism (as defined by DAP) in the heart of all Umno members.  That was what was implied in the "Chinese Revolt (Revolution)" statement by the DAP operatives.

A comment in my previous posting lamented my battleground analysis as based purely on ethnic composition:

Anonymous23 April 2013 18:53

Tinsel - I agree with, and appreciate, your opposition to JUK's comments. Your analysis is also interesting but the reasoning supporting it seems to be, to paraphrase, this or that seat will be competitive because of its ethnic mix. There's little or no consideration of the match up of candidates, local issues or policies. While you and JUK have different reactions, both appear to be based on a race-based interpretation of the world we live in. If this is what we aspire to, we are lost as a nation.

Unfortunately, this is how the state of things is, Anon, whether we like it or not.  It is not about issues, it is not about performance as a state administrator, it is not about your credibility as a politician, it is all about the perception that has been painted by DAP of Umno (which is really a Malay party) as the mother of all evils, the only racist organisation in Malaysia.  And it is all about ethnic composition of the electorates.

I am not going to list out what Dato Ghani has done for the Chinese of Gelang Patah in his capacity as Mentri Besar, because you can read it at Bee Kim's.  I am just going to say that he has done a hell of a lot more for the people of Gelang Patah than Lim Kit Siang, Boo Cheng Hau and the entire DAP Johor combined.  That is why I sincerely hope that Gelang Patah will prove them all wrong, and Dato Ghani will win handsomely with substantial support from the Chinese too.

Musings : Into the Bin

I was going through my notes to write about my next regional analysis, north-west Johor.  That got me totally depressed and I have decided to stop all these analysis business because that region of Johor is well and truly messed up politically.  Just too depressing for words.  Pagoh, Ledang, Bakri and Muar - from simple to complicated in that order.

Pagoh is simple because it is the TPM's division, and Tan Sri is the candidate for Pagoh.  It is an outright Malay-majority constituency, and all the candidates here are Malays.  BN is extremely strong here, no doubt BN will win all three seats of Pagoh, Jorak and Bukit Serampang.  No doubt, I am certain. PKR and PAS got no chance here at all.

Moving to Ledang, my depression began.  One of the reasons given by that Umno guy contesting as an independent was because he wanted to give Malay Umno voters an alternative to Asojan because Gambir is a Malay-majority seat.  See?  The polarisation have begun.

Then I got more depressed as I checked the reason that the new candidate to replace Dato Ghani in Serom is not getting acceptance - he is not a local of Serom, he resides in Gambir.  Man ..... So now, not only must you be of a certain ethnic group, of the pervasive political persuasion, you must also be a local, i.e. within the boundary of the constituency.  Isn't that nitpicking to the point of lunacy?  The man was born in Sungai Mati, for goodness sake.

Then of course there are Muar and Bakri.  

"We don't like the calon because he is not qualified to be the calon"

"Why is he not qualified?"

"Because we don't like him"

"Why don't you like him?  What is the connection between your not liking him and him being unqualified?"

"He must be liked by voters.  We are voters.  We don't like him.  So he is not qualified."

This from a bunch of people who allowed Er Teck Hwa to become their representative in Bakri in 2008.

I give up.

Battleground: North-Central

I realise that I have been neglecting the rest of Johor lately because I was probably too invested in what is going to happen in Gelang Patah.  I really hope Dato Ghani will win here because I wanted to prove to Pakatan that the majority of Johoreans are far too rational and pragmatic to be swayed by their kind of politics.  However, it is only fair that I note down other battlegrounds worthy of attention.

Segamat, Sekijang and Labis are three parliamentary seats located in north-central Johor, with six state seats at stake, namely Buloh Kasap, Jementah, Pemanis, Kemelah, Tenang and Bekok.  The following are the ethnic composition of the electorates in this region.

P140    SEGAMAT

47,115 (44.3% Malay, 45.6% Chinese, 9.9% Indian, 0.3% Others)

N01     BULOH KASAP

18,816 (55.9% Malay, 32.2% Chinese, 11.6% Indian, 0.3% Others)

N02     JEMENTAH

28,299 (36.6% Malay, 54.5% Chinese, 8.7% Indian, 0.2% Others)

P141    SEKIJANG

43,129 (56.1% Malay, 39.0% Chinese, 4.5% Indian, 0.3% Others)

 N03     PEMANIS

22,658 (56.9% Malay, 39.3% Chinese, 3.5% Indian, 0.3% Others) 

N04     KEMELAH

20,471 (55.2% Malay, 38.6% Chinese, 5.7% Indian, 0.5% Others)

P142    LABIS

43,129 (36.5% Malay, 46.5% Chinese, 15.1% Indian, 1.9% Others) 

N05     TENANG

16,974 (49.6% Malay, 37.6% Chinese, 11.3% Indian, 1.5% Others) 

N06     BEKOK

20,813 (25.9% Malay, 53.6% Chinese, 18.1% Indian, 2.4% Others)

Based on the latest development, I would consider Labis as the toughest among the three simply because the composition of Malay voters at 36% means Chua will need to ensure that he gets enough support from the 15% Indians to match the presumed overwhelming Chinese support for the Opposition.  This is why it makes sense that DAP opted to field S Ramakrishnan as their candidate.  

Being confident that the Indians would vote along racial lines, I believe DAP hopes to ensure that Tee Yong will not be able to garner sufficient Indian support to win Labis by fielding an Indian candidate.  In contrast, DAP fielded Lim Eng Guan in Bekok, an outright Chinese-majority state seat at 54%, because here, the DAP doesn't feel that they need the Indian votes to win, despite representing 18% of the electorates.  Similarly in Jementah, DAP strategists reckon that they can win this state seat by depending largely on the Chinese votes, assuming that PAS and PKR supporters won't be voting for BN.

I think, being a smart guy, Chua knew the odds are against him, but he is showing his mettle as a true leader by standing his ground in Labis, a traditional MCA seat.  I feel that this is one guy whose political career is worth watching.  I think he is a tougher opponent than people make him out to be and I sincerely wish him well in Labis.

Despite fielding Chua Jui Meng, I think PKR will have an uphill battle in Segamat.  For one thing, Segamat is a mixed seat, where Malay-Chinese composition is almost equal, and Chua must work doubly hard to ensure that PAS and DAP supporters will flock to his side.  Not only that, Chua also has credibility issues among the Chinese,  as Chinese in these parts of the woods are generally not too keen on turncoats, while the DAP supporters are not exactly thrilled that they "lost" their traditional seat to PKR.  It will be interesting to see the outcome of Segamat, but at the moment, advantage is to BN, although not by much.

Getting Updated

I am back at the office today, after being away for the most part of a week, thereby missing out on a number of events happening back at base such as nomination day, the first round of campaigning and such things.  On my way to the office, I took a detour, just to take a look at what's happening since last week and notice that all the campaigning paraphernalia are up and things look quite festive.

For the past couple of weeks, I have been getting updates purely from online sources, and a few phone calls to friends, and watching TV3 online.  Last night was the first time I managed to catch RTM news for the first time in weeks.  However, I must thank Bee Kim for her updates, along with Annie who has been moving on the ground, for they have given me a good feel for what is going on at home in Gelang Patah, and Johor in general.

Even though it is business as usual at the office, I will attempt to spend a little bit more of my evenings on the ground out there just so that I can have a feel of what is going on.  Not because I am that keen on the politics, but it is because I am invested in the future of Johor as I intended to make this my home and set up roots here.  What happens here in Johor, more specifically in Gelang Patah, will determine whether it will retain the attractive character that made me chose this place as my base two years ago.

When I arrived in Gelang Patah sometime in early 2011, people were still getting used to the changes, and there were many talks about the many infrastructure projects going on in and around the JB area, but had not physically made an impact yet to local residents.

However, knowing what will eventually happen, I decided to go around to have a feel of Gelang Patah as it was before the transformation fully takes place.  Whenever I had the time, I would drive around attempting to get lost so that I had the opportunity to chat people up asking for directions (:D) as well as to gauge how hospitable the place is.  Everyone was so helpful, some going out of their way to make sure I won't get lost again.  Some of the places that I stopped by for directions became my regular haunts.  That was the beginning of my love affair with Johor.

Back then, many were still unsure of what to expect, or how their lives will be affected by the changes that was happening.  The general feeling was mostly positive, there was great anticipation for things to come and many voiced their expectations that the changes would bring greater prosperity.  There were also concerns about cost of living, displacement of local folks, whether they can adapt to the changes taking place and how they can stay relevant.

After going around the state, I began to realise that in Johor, BN is not merely a political party, it is an integral part of the social landscape, most especially in the rural and semi-rural areas.  Even in the largely Chinese areas with non-BN MP or ADUN, you would find BN public service centres (Umno or MCA) that attempt to resolve day to day issues faced by the public, organise events with government agencies and provide BN representatives access to grassroots issues.

For BN in Johor, it has never been about personalities that take up all the limelight in the newspapers and TV, it has always been their service on the ground that matter.  The politicians who became ADUN or MP must always touch base with these guys on the ground to remain relevant.  They expect their representatives to be part of their social fabric, to be accessible 24x7, to attend weddings, to help out financially, etc..

Johor Malays, especially those in the rural and semi-rural areas, such as what Gelang Patah largely is, appreciate leaders who are humble, accessible, reliable and hands-on, regardless of their ethnicity.  Pomposity, confrontational and absenteeism will get nowhere with these folks.  Neither would they give time to those who make promises but do not deliver, and they are fairly vocal, albeit in the usual subtle ways of Johor Malays.  From my observation, Johor Chinese locally, are not that much different from their Malay counterparts.

People would say that Gelang Patah in GE13 is all about the Chinese vote, but what I have seen and from what I have gathered in conversations with the uncles and aunties I have met on my travels around Johor, I have faith in their ability to be discerning when making their choices.

Under Attack

The final list of nominees to represent the people of Johor has been finalised.  Now the campaigning will start in earnest and come May 5th, we will be casting our votes to choose our representation at the Dewan Rakyat and Dewan Negeri.

I have previously shared my analysis of Johor's political landscape and how the opposition parties position themselves to win a number of Johor parliamentary seats in order to capture Putrajaya.  I have always maintained that GE13 is not about capturing Johor per se, but to strengthen their Putrajaya bid.

Johor, Sarawak and Sabah became the Pact's frontline states because they have already captured all the possible parliamentary seats in the other states.  It must also be noted that their strategy in Johor is different from what is being employed in Sabah and Sarawak, for obvious reasons.

The Pact's chances of winning are greatest in Johor's urban areas with outright Chinese majority, hence the safest seats for them would be Kulai, Bakri, Gelang Patah and Kluang.  Except for Bakri, where the incumbent Er Teck Hwa is retained, DAP has brought in their elites to contest in Kulai, Gelang Patah and Kluang.  I believe that as far as DAP is concerned, these are the 4 parliamentary seats they are confident of winning.  DAP seems to be less confident of Labis, thus the uncertainty of who to field there.  However, BN are fielding, in my estimation, winnable candidates in these five seats, and their chances are quite good despite the overwhelming advantage to the DAP.

PAS readily admit that their chances in Johor largely depend on Chinese support for Pakatan, hence they have more or less acknowledged that their chances are slim in all the other seats they are contesting in Johor.  However, winning Pulai will be extremely difficult for PAS as they have yet to find any major chinks in BN's armor here that they can exploit.  Their support among the Malays have also been severely eroded with recent events affecting their Islamic credibility.  Their best chance will be Pulai, the only marginal seat contested by PAS, hence I expect PAS to focus the bulk of their campaigning for Pulai.  However, the prognosis is gloomy for PAS in Pulai, and it's not any better in Nusajaya either.

PKR's best hopes are Segamat and Batu Pahat although of the two, PKR's chances in Batu Pahat is higher than in Segamat.  In order to win, BN will have to really work hard in Chinese areas and Datuk Chua may need to campaign hard for BN in Batu Pahat instead of in Labis as BN is particular vulnerable for fielding an unpopular incumbent here.  However, there is the matter of the hardworking Syed Hamid Ali who had been sidelined in favor of Idris Jusi, which may reduce PKR's chances in Batu Pahat.

The Rocket Drama

I watched Lim Guan Eng acting up again on TV3 just now.  Aiyo Guan Eng ... enough with the drama la.  What do you want?  Both ROS and EC already said DAP can use the rocket symbol, why you need to be so dramatic with all the "if they keep their word" and "if not we will contest using PAS symbol".  You want to bring two authorisation letters, go ahead la, you don't have to make such a fuss of it.

Playing the victim like anyone with half a mind would sympathise with your self-inflicted problems.  Hey, DAP messed things up all by themselves in their own CEC election, OK.  The unhappy DAP members complained about it, then ROS investigated and informed DAP their newly elected CEC is not recognised by the ROS.  Don't start turning this into another sob story of how DAP is the most persecuted entity in the entire universe, can or not?

A DAP CT had already blamed Umno/BN in this comment "When face with prospect of defeat, what's UMNO/BN response? Using RoS to ban DAP and the Rocket symbol! Brilliant move." in my blog, although I don't know how Umno/BN is responsible for causing those DAP members to file their complaints to ROS.  Are there people who would actually buy this drivel?

Should ROS ignore the complaints filed by those DAP members then, because everyone must accept that DAP under the Lims can do no wrong, that they are perfection at all times?  What about the rights of those who filed the complaint?  What?  They've got none?

It is always Umno/BN that do these monstrous things, because BN without the Umno appended to it would not be sufficiently evil to be responsible for everything that's wrong with the world today.  The whole thing is just too juvenile, it isn't funny anymore.

How can anyone take this Lim fellow seriously?  First it's political assassination, now its bringing two authorisation letters to the nomination centre, next we don't know what la but will surely be something else to whine and dramatise about.  Drama queen betul.