My contention is simple - you can do whatever you want with Johor, turn it upside down, this way or that way, and still the State will be ruled by BN after the next general election.
It is just a matter of whether BN will win big or small, or whether Pakatan will win more seats or be totally wiped out.
Even the most hardcore Pakatan people in Johor know that this is true.
Pakatan currently have one parliament and six State seats in Johor. The parliament seat is DAP's Bakri while the State seats are DAP's Skudai, Senai, Mengkibol and Bentayan as well as Pas' Maharani and Sungai Abong. BN have 25 parliament and 50 State seats.
At the rate they are going now, my bet is that in the next general election, Pakatan will win one parliament seat and not more than 10 State seats.
Ok, let me explain later why Pakatan will get more State seats.
Firstly, these are the seats I expect to fall to them - for Parliament, it will be Kulai; for State seats, they will be Skudai, Senai, Bukit Batu, Penggaram, Pekan Nenas, Bentayan, Jementah, Bekok, Mengkibol and Yong Peng.
Do take note that Pas' Maharani and Sungai Abong are not in my list of Pakatan's probable dominions. Bakri is also not in it.
Yes, except for maybe one or two of those seats going to PKR as tokens, the rest will be DAP's. Pas will totally be wiped out. They are just there to break up the Malay votes.
Why?
It's because these constituencies in my list are those with clear cut Chinese majority and Umno there are having problem keeping things together. Kulai for instance got almost 60 per cent Chinese voters and the Umno division there are in serious trouble
I had repeatedly written in this blog that the only real problem faced by Johor BN is the perceived unhappiness of the Chinese community with the ruling coalition. Nothing else for the Pakatan people in Johor to really make noise. Case in point, is the fact that Johor PKR even have to appoint MCA reject Chua Jui Meng as their chief to pander to the Chinese community. It's the Chinese votes they are banking on. Nothing else.
It's also the only basis behind Pakatan's claim that they can achieve something in the State in the next general election.
But of course they cannot openly admit that. They still need as many non-Chinese votes as they can get to break the especially united Malay vote bank in the State which is still more or less solidly behind Umno.
So, they have to come up with something like this Cooking Lynas-style nonsense for Pengerang
Apparently The Mole had pick up the drift here
Southern discomfort
And today a group of Pakatan-backed people filed a case at the court to stop the petroleum hub project.No need for me to write more about it here as you all can go to those links to understand better about those Pakatan engineered Pengerang issue..
These sorts of Pakatan bullshits will go on until the next general election as a camouflage for their real agenda. Protests against Lynas, support for Chinese schools, demo for electoral reform etc etc. All the same. It will go on and on and on. All just bullshit, ok? The real issue is just about politics and Pakatan taking over Putrajaya. Nothing else.
Well said BigCat. if i was u, i will not worry about the "threat" of Chua Jui Meng. i bliv PKR was hoping plenty will follow CJM to join the party, which it didnt materialised.
ReplyDeleteBesides that, i cannot foresee boo CH willing to "trade" any of DAP's seat with PKR just to accommodate the Deserter, knowing the fact that CJM can no longer guarantee a win in Johor anymore.
That clown Jui Meng is not a threat at all. Guan Eng had already chased him off when he wanted to contest in his old constituency Bakri. Now he is being boycotted by Dr Boo for trying to leech on DAP in Gelang Patah. That's why Gelang Patah is no longer a danger seat for BN.
DeleteSoi Lek should be the man representing MCA in Kulai...
ReplyDeletemuo mari
My bet is Soi Lek is not likely to contest in Johor....or anywhere else for that matter.
Deleteyou ask A Ghani Othman when he wants to pay the ASJ/DJ investors.He has promised to do that before Chua Soi Lek in one of the meetings.After having done that he must not be MB again..which ever comes out first
ReplyDeleteThis posting cracks me up.
ReplyDeleteThanks for brightening up an otherwise rainy evening.
Anyway since PAS is upping its ante with shifting leadership resources to Johor, i heard DAP will commit at least a few national leaders to come back to Johor so your predictions seem more arrogant as usual. If Chua Soi Lek is contesting, then we may even tempt one more Johor-born top-gun to the fight. A battle royale indeed...
As a 50-50 state, Johor's fate will be decided by national issues with outstation anak2 Johor in Klang Valley, Penang & Singapore playing a big role as well as influencing their parents' votes at home. For PR 8 MPs, 20 Aduns is doable now.
I think the typical UMNO "Pusat Daerah Mengundi" methods of counting votes is interesting but flawed these days. But we shall let GE13 results validate the PDM-JASA-SB way of doing things.
Haha.
~ Kluang girl
Dear Kluang girl,
DeleteYou cracks me up too :-)
Oh, also, you said Pakatan can win 8 parliament and 20 State seats. Hmmm...the parliament seats should be Kulai, Gelang Patah, Bakri, Kluang, Segamat, Tanjong Piai, Yong Peng, Tebrau. Wah! All non-Umno seats leh. Pas cannot have even one, poor buggards. Work so hard to break Malay votes, but cant get a single parliament seat ka? Ok, if I'm wrong, which parliament area Pas candidates in Johor can win? You tell me lah. Some more, you said Pakatan can get 20 State seats. That's not enough to form the State government, isn't it? Johor got 56 State seats what. So, Pas cannot become MP or have a Menteri Besar, right? You all DAP people are too much lah, con your stupid Malay friends like that.
DeleteOpps, sorry, Yong Peng is a State constituency, just woke up lah, not very sharp, still blur blur, hehehe....eerrr, the other parliament seat in your list to be won by Pakatan should be Labis kut? Another one for DAP kan? True or not? Give la one to Pas. Poor fellas.
DeleteJohor state a 50-50??!!
Deletehey kluang girl, can i have whatever that u are smoking?
Don't worry Big Cat.
DeleteThat's just my little forecast at this moment, subject to national dynamics the voters sentiments can change some more.
I've said sometime ago, there will be coming together of Bersih yellow & Himpunan Hijau.
Now waiting for Hindraf orange too with a few other NGOs to come together with their multi-racial crowd for joint events... Interesting times.
Anyway, you have your PDM-Jasa-SB & Ketua2 Bahagian to validate your own winning analysis what... Haha
~ Kluang girl
Well, you go have fun at the rallies, ok? Don't worry, I never worry one. hehehe :-)
DeleteI winder whether regional loyalties and influences play a part too.
ReplyDeleteJohor is a BN - well UMNO stronghold and its influence permeates northwards, while Kelantan is a PAS stronghold and Anwar Ibrahim is a Penang person, so their influences permeates southwards but not far enough to be strong enough to topple UMNO in Johor and vice-versa for UMNO to topple PAS in Kelantan.
Just wondering.
I think it's more the attitude of the people n the culture of their society which have more iinfluence on their political stand. Johoreans, notwithstanding of their race or religion tend to be a more confident bunch of people. They tend to be comparitively a secure lot and this results in a more stable community. This is what DAP are trying to disrupt, that is by trying to entice Johorean Chinese with the appeal of a more politically powerful Chinese community. It's a dangerous game they are playing as a Johor, politically split along racial line, will no longer be what it used to be - a united peaceful progressive State.
Delete1. Malays will learn from Batu Pahat history.
ReplyDelete2. Malays will stand united for a common goal.
3. Malays are not so stupid in playing game with DAP.
4. KS Lim knew the history in Batu Pahat.
5. He should share the experience with DAP members.
'My bet is Soi Lek is not likely to contest in Johor....or anywhere else for that matter.'
ReplyDeleteWell said, and I hope well predicted. This man betrayed his better (or bitter) half and MCA made him a president????? Well, well, is he a winnable BN candidate?
Those who are caught in hotel room with their mistress, cute foreign prostitutes, other people's wife, coffee boy etc etc are not winnable candidates...especially those who refuse to admit their guilt. Then again, this probably only applicable among BN people. Pakatan people tak apa kut...
DeleteTrue, rightly said it - tak apa for pakatan people, their leader semua saints and angels !
DeleteJB Boy/
Bigcat forgot one important fact - Chinese voters will give their votes to PAS instead of to any BN candidate when it comes one-to-one Umno vs. Pas seats !
ReplyDeleteJB Boy
True to a certain extent, but not all Chinese are like that. Remember Tenang? The Chinese there were more than 40 per cent.Malays less than 50 per cent. Still, the Umno guy won with an increased majority. More than 30 per cent of the Chinese votes went to BN in that by-election. I'm still confident that Umno can still beat Pas anywhere, anytime in Johor as long as they field a good candidate.
DeleteTell me truthfully, Bigcat, will you so proudly admit to your guilt? CSL did when the video came out. Anyone remember who had accused him or indicated it was him. Oh! boy, was he proud of it.
ReplyDeleteTell me again, truthfully, was the video by that trio true? Yes, many said it was true, esp. by the powers that be. But why no action, only talk by people like brick, box, rock, dog, cat and bird.
hehehehe...see, true or not what I said, if it's their people, sure won't believe one...never mind lah...expected already :)
Deletemeow meow meow. so no answer, why? your conscience meowing you.
DeleteA sharp analysis on Johor by this smart BigCat who has sniffed out the ground in Johor. Ask the cap Naga guys to bring out their dragon ladies to campaign-lah ......better vote gain
ReplyDeleteThe real issue is just about politics and Pakatan taking over Putrajaya. Nothing else.
ReplyDeleteSo have you made plans to migrate to Taiwan ? Better do it soon.
Godfather
for chinese to gve vote to Pas and not UMNO and for malays to give vote MCA/MIC/and others in BN coaltion as long as not Pakatan so JOHOR will be the BN state. and it will be the same in Penang and kedah so malays will really do it because the way chinese do ti even thou the Governemnt gave so much and yet the chinese still vote the opp so we malays thot that the only way to do it is to stop giving any vote to any parties that that the chinese are willing to give even thous they got so much from the federal government. This is not racist but baru sedar melayu terlalu lembut hinggakan segala diberi tak pernah orang-orang ini bersyukur.The latest incident that pissed off, is no non chinese speaking teacher in chinese school. that made me pissed off, other school include tamil school never demanded such a thing. klau taka nak bangsa asing balik China so kat sana tak payah nak pilih teacher tak payah nak demand. Living in malaysia be like a Malaysian.Note; Ex chinese school pupil but such racist feeling never exist in chinese school before,why now....
ReplyDelete