Monday, 21 October 2013

Musings: Politically Speaking

I have refrained from putting down my thoughts here during all that Umno thing that has been the main topic of the political kind these past weeks because I was hoping against hope that Umno leadership will seriously walk the talk - you know, about all that transformation bull and stuff - but the results of the Wanita and Pemuda elections kinda tell me that all that transformation talk was just that - bullxxxx.

The thing is, I'd rather not make predictions early on as I had no wish to see my fears confirmed, but unfortunately the outcome was such that I spent the most part of yesterday creating content for my favorite computer game instead of being useful around the house.  It was really disheartening.

However, I am not going to start getting all emotional and throwing tantrums with proclamations of "Umno is dead, long live PR/DAP/PAS!" or things of that nature.

I haven't lost it all yet, for despite the less than stellar leadership line-up within Umno, it has far more credibility and variables than those presently in power within DAP and PAS.

At least BN/Umno still has some conscience, especially since it has not resorted to the kind of bigoted demonisation that has been used against them by the PR/DAP/PAS and their liberalised "classy" minions from both sides of the divide in cyberspace, twitterdom and elsewhere.

The next political struggle to watch for in the Peninsular states will be within PR/PAS.

PAS has never been politically active in Sabah and Sarawak, so its fight will largely be focused on the  Peninsular Malays, presenting an alternative to BN/Umno, and will be taking advantage of the present dissatisfaction among urban and young Malays with Umno's insular attitude.

That's why Khairy Jamaluddin's winning the Pemuda leadership is the saddest thing for Umno's future as I think he is out of touch with the majority of young Malays urban or rural - he is seen as too liberal, too untrustworthy, too in love with himself and too fake - that I think they will eventually flock to PR/PAS if Pemuda continues its present "syok sendiri" mode, its current trademark.

I have just completed re-reading about Pemuda Umno, and my quick assessment is that its decline really began in the late 80s to early 90s, so it is not surprising that the present Umno leadership is the way it is right now.

Looking at the voting trends from 1999 to 2008, there has been a steady decrease of support for BN/Umno at the ballot box among the younger voters even in Malay-majority areas.  The results of GE13 would be an interesting analysis.  However, I digress.

The way I look at it, PR has milked all it can milk, politically, from the Peninsular Chinese through DAP's chavinistic politics, and will now focus most of their energy in converting Sabah and Sarawak.

What happened at GE13 sort of proved that PR and their backers cannot win the federation purely by playing on Chinese sentiments.

Despite using PAS and their rhetorics to undermine Malay solidarity in semi-urban areas, and gaining almost all the Chinese heart and soul, they failed to win sufficient seats to form the federal government.

The Chinese and the liberal Malays have largely ghettoed themselves into highly dense urban enclaves of "the haves" that have limited their effectiveness during elections.

All PR can do now is play the Chinese sentiments to maintain the status quo within the Chinese enclaves, that is playing up all the Chinese issues they can find to keep the fire burning, so to speak.

PR realise that they need to garner the rural votes themselves as PAS has failed to deliver rural support - this is proven in Johor and Perak.

They can only do that among the bumiputra of Sabah and Sarawak.  Their tool is Christian evangelism.

At least that's why I think PR/DAP are going all evangelical for the past 2 terms and why they immediately went into campaign mode for Sabah and Sarawak barely a month after GE13.

Their focus will be in using Christianity to get the rural votes from Sabah and Sarawak, and that is why they are working with the various churches to increase both flock and votes - a mutually beneficial partnership indeed.

PR/DAP have not seen massive success yet, but their backers and strategists are confident that their "superior intellect" and massive funding through NGOs will prevail against the "simplistic and less than intelligent" natives despite failing to rouse a Malaysian Spring into the summer of 2013.

After all, the only thing in their way is currently being controlled by self-serving pursuits of the few and lulled into complacency from within.

7 comments:

  1. The transformation within UMNO probably will only happen after BN is kicked out. Sigh.

    Paan M.

    ReplyDelete
  2. BC - always a pleasure to see your analysis and comments. I agree that both sides will use religion in their campaigning but I don't think it will have a big impact on the results. Why? Religious sentiment has been and will be used by politicians in every GE in Malaysia. Given the huge majorities in most seats in East Malaysia the only important factor is what the Big Men of the East are doing - Taib and Kitingan. If the BN men retire can their successors keep the 18 parliamentary seats they now hold (and the other 11 that PBB controls indirectly)?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dear BigCat.
    Somehow there must be some Buddhist Chinese who do not agree with DAP's sowing hatred among Muslim and Christian. Not all Buddhist would like to see their children converting to Christian, especially by those evangelist politicians. No parents with sane mind would wish Malaysia plunge into ethnic & religious strife, either.
    Anyway, I'm really disgusted that PAS seems unconscious to what DAP is doing in Sabah & Sarawak.

    'I think they will eventually flock to PR/PAS if Pemuda continues its present "syok sendiri" mode'
    If Mukhriz had won, I myself may not have given-up hope, on UMNO. I would choose PAS, GE14 on condition that they quit PR and dump those Anwarinas and those too liberals among them.
    To make UMNO leaders open their eyes wide, lets call for a boycott of Sg.Limau by-election if the field an UMNO friendly candidate. I sure hope that UMNO supporters in Sg. Limau could give it a pass, on nomination and polling day. It does not matter anymore if PAS retain that seat. Its not that BN would achieve 2/3, anyway. Could even save Rakyat's money. No more ceramah and campaign which will divide the Malays further.

    Kedah MB have tossed the idea of an EXCO slot to PAS, as a goodwill? Wonder what happen to that idea. A win for PAS, bodes well as a starter, though.

    Come GE14, I hope PAS could quit PR and get rid of those Anwaristas among them.
    Frustrated UMNO supporters would then have a better option rather than those tainted and corrupted millionaires being elected or appointed, again and again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What had happen in Pemilihan UMNO does really prove Melayu memang tidak berkualiti ,does lead to the question ,should we continue to trust the Malay leadership to lead the government ?.

      Delete
    2. "Kedah MB have tossed the idea of an EXCO slot to PAS, as a goodwill? Wonder what happen to that idea. A win for PAS, bodes well as a starter, though."

      As the Quran says, men plan and Allah plans and verily Allah's plan will prevail. So it is with Mukhriz. He needs to build up a wider power base first, as the recent UMNO elections showed. And he has some time yet to shore up his position before GE14. If he can turn Kedah into his fortress in these 4 years, God willing, he will eventually see off the liberal and progressive musuh dalam selimut who are trying to destroy UMNO from within for their foreign master's bidding.

      The Malays may be seething at the UMNO non-leaders now. But I have a feeling come GE14 God's plan will reveal itself and it may just be the PR/Chinese who will get a shock of their lives, God willing. maybe then we will finally see an exodus of these ingrates to other shores.

      Delete
  4. Ahli UMNO perlu lebih banyak membaca22 October 2013 14:37

    Sesuatu yang jelas dari hasil pemilihan UMNO ini adalah orang Melayu amnya tidak prihatin mengenai korupsi.
    KJ jelas korup sebagai orang terkaya di malaysia kata Lim Kit Siang yang tidak bekerja. Tapi jika SPRM badan khas yang dibayar gaji pun malas nak siasat bagaimana dengan orang biasa yang sibuk cari makan.
    Begitu juga Mukhriz, dari mana kekayaan dia? Berapa banyak syarikat Cina yang dia jadi Pengarah? Tidak dipersoalkan oleh Big Cat dan orang Melayu dan ahli UMNO.
    Tetapi ini merupakan sesuatu yang boleh dirungkai dan di ajar.
    Korupsi itu bukan dosa tapi merbahaya kepada bangsa dan negara.
    Jika KJ dalam tangan Cina Singapura, segala projek akan menguntungkan orang Cina.
    Jika Mukriz naik maka, syarikat Cina dia akan naik tocang. Ini mesti di ajar, bagaimana orang Cina menguasai polisi dan implementasi kuasa Melayu di dalam UMNO.
    UMNO dan kerajaan sibuk pasal korupsi tetapi itu sangat basic. Korupsi ambil duit sikit itu memang biasa tapi korupsi peringkat polisi tidak di sentuh.
    Kenapa Khir Toyo beli tanah dengan harga murah sikit menjadi kes sedangkan KJ terima komisen atau benefit dengan banyak tidak di siasat dan di dakwa?
    Khir Toyo tidak membahayakan orang Melayu tapi KJ adalah bahaya.
    Adakah ahli UMNO tak baca blog? Utusan dan BH adalah official UMNO papers dan mereka tidak akan mendedahkan kepimpinan UMNO.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Now that GE13 has shown that 95% of Chinese are powerless even against just 45% Malays/Bumis, confident that they have the Chinese vote secure in their pocket they will now go for the BN fixed deposits. I hypothesise that their main strategies for GE14 are:

    1. Decimate MCA and Gerakan once and for all and reap the remaining 15% Chinese to their side.
    2. Hit the Felda schemes.
    3. Win over Sabah & Sarawak non-Malay Bumis.
    4. Win over the Indians back to their side after screwing Hindraf over and over again in the past.

    On UMNO's end, the strategy should be:
    1. Safeguard Felda.
    2. Safeguard Sabah & Sarawak non-Malay Bumi votes.
    3. Actively promote Malays to go out and vote come GE14.
    4. Actively execute a Malay voter registration exercise. So that in states liek Penang Malay voters will either equal or outnumber the Chinese.

    I predict that while the Malays are currently frustrated with the current UMNO leadership, more will rise up than before at GE14 and they will swing even more to BN. This is why DAP is suddenly all Melayu-friendly and going all Lee Kuan Yew - it's to trick the Malay majority into thinking that DAP poses no threat to the Malays should PR win in GE14. We all know what would really happen if that came to pass. All we do is just look at Singapore and ask: "Whatever happened to the Melayu president la, wey?"

    And how come the Malays there have not enough merit to become either Ministers or fighter pilots? Indeed, I see LKY's recent bashing of the Opposition fucktards in his book as being more of a case of pukul anak sindir menantu. So now Oppo has heard and they obey, so they're now going all LKY on Malaysia again.

    ReplyDelete