I have refrained from putting down my thoughts here during all that Umno thing that has been the main topic of the political kind these past weeks because I was hoping against hope that Umno leadership will seriously walk the talk - you know, about all that transformation bull and stuff - but the results of the Wanita and Pemuda elections kinda tell me that all that transformation talk was just that - bullxxxx.
The thing is, I'd rather not make predictions early on as I had no wish to see my fears confirmed, but unfortunately the outcome was such that I spent the most part of yesterday creating content for my favorite computer game instead of being useful around the house. It was really disheartening.
However, I am not going to start getting all emotional and throwing tantrums with proclamations of "Umno is dead, long live PR/DAP/PAS!" or things of that nature.
I haven't lost it all yet, for despite the less than stellar leadership line-up within Umno, it has far more credibility and variables than those presently in power within DAP and PAS.
At least BN/Umno still has some conscience, especially since it has not resorted to the kind of bigoted demonisation that has been used against them by the PR/DAP/PAS and their liberalised "classy" minions from both sides of the divide in cyberspace, twitterdom and elsewhere.
The next political struggle to watch for in the Peninsular states will be within PR/PAS.
PAS has never been politically active in Sabah and Sarawak, so its fight will largely be focused on the Peninsular Malays, presenting an alternative to BN/Umno, and will be taking advantage of the present dissatisfaction among urban and young Malays with Umno's insular attitude.
That's why Khairy Jamaluddin's winning the Pemuda leadership is the saddest thing for Umno's future as I think he is out of touch with the majority of young Malays urban or rural - he is seen as too liberal, too untrustworthy, too in love with himself and too fake - that I think they will eventually flock to PR/PAS if Pemuda continues its present "syok sendiri" mode, its current trademark.
I have just completed re-reading about Pemuda Umno, and my quick assessment is that its decline really began in the late 80s to early 90s, so it is not surprising that the present Umno leadership is the way it is right now.
Looking at the voting trends from 1999 to 2008, there has been a steady decrease of support for BN/Umno at the ballot box among the younger voters even in Malay-majority areas. The results of GE13 would be an interesting analysis. However, I digress.
The way I look at it, PR has milked all it can milk, politically, from the Peninsular Chinese through DAP's chavinistic politics, and will now focus most of their energy in converting Sabah and Sarawak.
What happened at GE13 sort of proved that PR and their backers cannot win the federation purely by playing on Chinese sentiments.
Despite using PAS and their rhetorics to undermine Malay solidarity in semi-urban areas, and gaining almost all the Chinese heart and soul, they failed to win sufficient seats to form the federal government.
The Chinese and the liberal Malays have largely ghettoed themselves into highly dense urban enclaves of "the haves" that have limited their effectiveness during elections.
All PR can do now is play the Chinese sentiments to maintain the status quo within the Chinese enclaves, that is playing up all the Chinese issues they can find to keep the fire burning, so to speak.
PR realise that they need to garner the rural votes themselves as PAS has failed to deliver rural support - this is proven in Johor and Perak.
They can only do that among the bumiputra of Sabah and Sarawak. Their tool is Christian evangelism.
At least that's why I think PR/DAP are going all evangelical for the past 2 terms and why they immediately went into campaign mode for Sabah and Sarawak barely a month after GE13.
Their focus will be in using Christianity to get the rural votes from Sabah and Sarawak, and that is why they are working with the various churches to increase both flock and votes - a mutually beneficial partnership indeed.
PR/DAP have not seen massive success yet, but their backers and strategists are confident that their "superior intellect" and massive funding through NGOs will prevail against the "simplistic and less than intelligent" natives despite failing to rouse a Malaysian Spring into the summer of 2013.
After all, the only thing in their way is currently being controlled by self-serving pursuits of the few and lulled into complacency from within.