Sunday 24 March 2013

Battlefield Johor



The Pakatan, most especially PKR, has been focusing their resources over the past few years on what they term as their frontline states of Johor, Sabah and Sarawak.  Now that we are that close to GE13, let us assess the situation on the ground.

With YB Lim KS confirmed to contest the Gelang Patah seat, everyone seems to be eager to focus their attention to Johor and you can already hear the experts predicting a BN fallout in Johor.  It is too easy to say that being a Chinese-majority constituency, Gelang Patah is deemed to be "kacang putih" for Lim KS.  From a certain point of view, even as he is the revered old man of the party, Lim KS is not exactly at the top of the power structure within DAP.  The present power structure belongs to the young guns within DAP, the ones making the operational strategic and tactical decisions for the party.

Lim KS is part of the old guard, whose role is predominantly to fight the fires and to subdue rebellions within the ranks.  The majority of the DAP members in Johor are of the old school, with deep respect for the original ideals of the party and view Lim as the father of DAP.   Hence he was quickly dispatched to Johor to cool down the southern hotheads fighting for their survival within the DAP new power structure.  More than anything else, Lim's decision to enter the fray is a reflection of how serious the fractures within DAP Johor is.

DAP knows that they will not be able to wrest Johor from BN in the GE, hence the real power within that structure will not risk their political career by moving to Johor.  However, those that do not belong to the new circle of power will be thrown into the southern refrigerator as "front-liners" until they are properly subdued for secondary roles within the new DAP power structure.  Those who cannot be subdued will be sidelined or discarded.

This culling process will be used extensively in the next GE in preparation of a direct assault in the following GE.  DAP will also continue using Anwar and PKR and their well-financed NGOs to ensure that they strengthen their political power base in their target areas.  This does not mean that DAP is poor, far from it, but it makes sense not to lose steam too soon by expending too much too early in the game.

In the mean time, the PKR machinery and the PAS hordes will continue to hammer BN Fortress Johor with their NGOs, financial might, religious infiltration and civil disobedient movements.  The DAP elites will only muscle their way into Johor for the kill once BN is sufficiently weakened.  The coming GE will determine how much they have actually gained, and the Johor stalwarts of the GE13 will have to make way for the elites once they have established a strong footing down south.

To counter PR's, or in this case DAP's, gains in Johor, it would serve BN well to double its efforts in not only Chinese-majority and marginal constituencies, but also in Malay-majority seats where Malay support for BN have been greatly eroded by arrogance, constant in-fighting and factionalism within Umno.

16 comments:

  1. I saw how YAB Dato Ghani working hard round the clock visiting & meeting those Chinese leaders/organisations around Johor...all without the fancy of TV coverage & mainstream papers. Gerakan are useless. MCA must work harder!

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  2. Perhaps living in close proximity with Singapore enlightened Johorean Chinese of the need to say no to DAP? I'm just wondering out loud there. Would like to know what the readers think.

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    1. I think it is more to do with DAP's history and it's association with the radical activities of the 60's and 70's. I remember talking with an uncle in Segamat once who said that these youngsters who support the DAP are ungrateful and arrogant, they have forgotten their roots. That uncle also said "dulu kita sama-sama bangunkan negeri ini, kerja sebelah Melayu, sebelah lagi India, tak ada hal. Berapa susah dulu kita nak majukan negara. Ingat mereka boleh jadi doktor, jadi lawyer, kalau negeri tak aman", well there was more. But they are a dying breed, these level headed guys like that uncle.

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    2. And to think Bukit Kepong is after all located in Johor, the young ones certainly don't appreciate all the blood shed for the peace we enjoy today.

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  3. Gelang Patah will be a test ground on how the Chinese minds work, it's will a clear picture ,if they choose LKS of DAP a Chinese base party, of anti establishment who minds only work for the Chinese interest,or a rational Chinese base party with the interest of all Malaysian.

    To chose someone who could serve the constituency well ,or a "hopping" parliamentarian which build his reputation by championing only the interest of the Chinese community at the same time projecting the idea of Malaysian Malaysia which does not really show.

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    1. Urban voters are not as demanding as rural voters. I doubt that LKS's hopping habit would make much difference to those who have made up their mind.

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  4. Hi BC,

    LKS comes into Johor carrying this huge baggage of 5 years of virtual DAP rule over Penang which saw even their partners PAS and PKR and of course the Malays and Indians been sidelined.

    What happened to Penang showed to Malaysians how arrogant the DAP have been and would be in the future.

    I think DAPs supremo LKS coming to Johor will only unite the Malay voters to dump the Pakatan of DAP,PKR and PAS.

    LKS coming to Johor will only buttress the BN/UMNO stronghold.

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    1. Hi eddy, I think LKS and DAP underestimate BN's resolve to retain Gelang Patah, and if he thinks Dr Boo can be easily sidelined in his own home base, he got another thing coming.

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  5. dengan rekod kit siang yang melompat-lompat kawasan saya nak tengok sejauh mana 'chauvinist'nya orang cina kat johor.

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    1. Gelang Patah mungkin akan menjadi medan terakhir LKS. Jika dia kalah di sini, sejarah politiknya akan berakhir dengan kekalahan.

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  6. Big Cat.
    Saya cadangkan MB, Ghani Othman sebagai calon BN bagi Parlimen Gelang Patah. Biar pun GP adalah kuota MCA, parti itu wajar memberi laluan untuk Ghani bertarung dengan LKS. Alang-alang menyeluk pekasam biar sampai ke pangkal lengan!

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    1. Cadangan tu kena bagi pada DS Najib. Letak kat facebook dia ke .. sebab bab calon ni keputusan dia.

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    2. Tapi Ghani masih ingin jadi MB Johor, so dia harus bertanding di tiket DUN.

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    3. Calon bukan urusan kita. Itu keputusan DS Najib. Jika BN nak menang, fokus adalah pada menguatkan sokongan pengundi kepada BN tak kira siapa calonnya, bukan berpolitik tentang calon yang mana bertanding di mana.

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  7. Ghani Othman should be sent back to lecture rural economics in MU..not that he is so bloody good or clever, his lectures were so bloody uninteresting and sleepy to hear, so the kids at MU must suffer. To stay and ask for 4 terms as MB I think its too long and too much of him. We think he should retire, and look after his Mat Salleh in laws and cucu

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    1. Not our business to decide who DS Najib decides to field or appoint as his commander-in-chief in Johor. Give your opinion to DS Najib and his team. Declaring it here anonymously in this manner is akin to shooting BN in the back and an act of cowardice and sabotage.

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