Tuesday, 23 April 2013

Battleground: North-Central

I realise that I have been neglecting the rest of Johor lately because I was probably too invested in what is going to happen in Gelang Patah.  I really hope Dato Ghani will win here because I wanted to prove to Pakatan that the majority of Johoreans are far too rational and pragmatic to be swayed by their kind of politics.  However, it is only fair that I note down other battlegrounds worthy of attention.


Segamat, Sekijang and Labis are three parliamentary seats located in north-central Johor, with six state seats at stake, namely Buloh Kasap, Jementah, Pemanis, Kemelah, Tenang and Bekok.  The following are the ethnic composition of the electorates in this region.

P140    SEGAMAT
47,115 (44.3% Malay, 45.6% Chinese, 9.9% Indian, 0.3% Others)
N01     BULOH KASAP
18,816 (55.9% Malay, 32.2% Chinese, 11.6% Indian, 0.3% Others)
N02     JEMENTAH
28,299 (36.6% Malay, 54.5% Chinese, 8.7% Indian, 0.2% Others)

P141    SEKIJANG
43,129 (56.1% Malay, 39.0% Chinese, 4.5% Indian, 0.3% Others)
 N03     PEMANIS
22,658 (56.9% Malay, 39.3% Chinese, 3.5% Indian, 0.3% Others) 
N04     KEMELAH
20,471 (55.2% Malay, 38.6% Chinese, 5.7% Indian, 0.5% Others)

P142    LABIS
43,129 (36.5% Malay, 46.5% Chinese, 15.1% Indian, 1.9% Others) 
N05     TENANG
16,974 (49.6% Malay, 37.6% Chinese, 11.3% Indian, 1.5% Others) 
N06     BEKOK
20,813 (25.9% Malay, 53.6% Chinese, 18.1% Indian, 2.4% Others)

Based on the latest development, I would consider Labis as the toughest among the three simply because the composition of Malay voters at 36% means Chua will need to ensure that he gets enough support from the 15% Indians to match the presumed overwhelming Chinese support for the Opposition.  This is why it makes sense that DAP opted to field S Ramakrishnan as their candidate.  

Being confident that the Indians would vote along racial lines, I believe DAP hopes to ensure that Tee Yong will not be able to garner sufficient Indian support to win Labis by fielding an Indian candidate.  In contrast, DAP fielded Lim Eng Guan in Bekok, an outright Chinese-majority state seat at 54%, because here, the DAP doesn't feel that they need the Indian votes to win, despite representing 18% of the electorates.  Similarly in Jementah, DAP strategists reckon that they can win this state seat by depending largely on the Chinese votes, assuming that PAS and PKR supporters won't be voting for BN.

I think, being a smart guy, Chua knew the odds are against him, but he is showing his mettle as a true leader by standing his ground in Labis, a traditional MCA seat.  I feel that this is one guy whose political career is worth watching.  I think he is a tougher opponent than people make him out to be and I sincerely wish him well in Labis.

Despite fielding Chua Jui Meng, I think PKR will have an uphill battle in Segamat.  For one thing, Segamat is a mixed seat, where Malay-Chinese composition is almost equal, and Chua must work doubly hard to ensure that PAS and DAP supporters will flock to his side.  Not only that, Chua also has credibility issues among the Chinese,  as Chinese in these parts of the woods are generally not too keen on turncoats, while the DAP supporters are not exactly thrilled that they "lost" their traditional seat to PKR.  It will be interesting to see the outcome of Segamat, but at the moment, advantage is to BN, although not by much.

11 comments:

  1. I guess if this Chua Tee Yong is from the DAP or PKR you will scream nepotism and will not say he is a smart guy. You think if his father is not CSL he will get to contest and be a minister? But it's not your fault..its who we are supporting..

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    Replies
    1. Nepotism has always been a Pakatan batle cry. At least Chua Soi Lek is not contesting, neiher is Mahathir, unlike the fathers and offsprings of Pakatan.

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  2. JanganUndiKafirun23 April 2013 at 16:00

    Do not vote for kafirun Cina or India. Its that simple.

    Takboleh bagi orang luar jadi pemerintah di Malaya ini.

    Ianya satu mitos kita orang Melayu perlu memberi kesempatan kepada
    orang Cina supaya memerintah.


    Mitos ini sebenarnya disebarkan oleh pemimpin Melayu yang bersekongkol mencuri harta dan asset Tanah Melayu dengan orang Cina dan India.

    Adakah orang Melayu diberi peluang menjadi wakil rakyat di negara Cina dan di India? Fikirkanlah logiknya.

    Mereka juga sebenarnya tidak berniat untuk dapat kuasa tetapi pendatang yang menghantui UMNO menyorok disebalik mereka ini untuk mengabui orang Melayu.
    Ini salah.Kita perlu hanya memilih orang Melayu kerana ini Tanah Melayu.

    Memberi kerakyatan adalah satu kesilapan. Jangan pula ditambah menjadikan
    mereka pemerintah.

    Dilarang ugama dan juga tak masuk akal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is the kind of thinking that propagate hatred among Malaysians, promoting inter-ethnic mistrust that make you similar to this person here http://shuzheng.wordpress.com/2013/04/09/talk-yes-trust-manana/.

      What you fail to see is the big picture, of how our society needs an environment that is peaceful and harmonious to prosper. See what a posturing and confrontational political culture is doing to our neighbors, despite admirable economic growth, what happens to the "sons of the lands"? Unless of course if you are a non-Malay purposely trying instigate Malays to hate non-Malays.

      Carrying on with that line of thinking, the likelihood is we will see even more polarisation and segregation affecting Malaysia, not just politically, but economically and socially. In such a scenario, you can bet that the loser will be the Malays as economic segregation will destroy Malay economic empowerment that we are currently building.

      I think, you are trying to provoke Malays into the confrontational and mutual mistrust trap being fermented by the pro-opposition and their international special interest groups.

      Those who believe these lies have failed to see the big picture, that Malay survival is not only about strengthening the Malay identity, preserving our culture and practicing Islam as our way of life, but Malay survival is also about economic empowerment.

      People, decide for yourself who can provide that.

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    2. Tinsel - I agree with, and appreciate, your opposition to JUK's comments. Your analysis is also interesting but the reasoning supporting it seems to be, to paraphrase, this or that seat will be competitive because of its ethnic mix. There's little or no consideration of the match up of candidates, local issues or policies. While you and JUK have different reactions, both appear to be based on a race-based interpretation of the world we live in. If this is what we aspire to, we are lost as a nation.

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    3. Anon 18:53,

      I have spent quite a bit on the ground in Segamat. Unfortunately, the reality on the ground is, those BN candidates in all three parliamentary seats would be lucky to even get 30% of Chinese support.

      I actually asked the uncles, aunties, makciks and pakciks on the ground, and yes, the opposition factions, their politicians, their NGOs, the Chinese media, and people like shuzheng has created an atmosphere that race matters more than anything else.

      There are local Chinese who would rather abstain from voting than vote for a non-Chinese. Tenang by-election would be a good example. This is the reality. However, I try in my little ways to provide a different view when I chat with these people, I don't know whether it would make any difference, but I have to try.

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    4. Big Cat, I wouldn't be surprised if JanganUndiKafirun is actually a Christian Chinese DAP fucker masquerading as an ultra Malay trying to fan hatred towards UMNO. The language and phrasing smells funny. It's their game all along.

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    5. Yes, I thought the language was a bit off for a Malay...

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  3. Big cat, i heard reports that there is a swing vote from the chinese to lim kit siang in gelang patah? Is this true? Pls dont let him win :(

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We will try our best to make sure that particular chauvinist would not be able to gain the upper-hand in Gelang Patah, at least my one vote will not go to him. And Boo will not get the other vote either.

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  4. No need to hope. Dato Ghani and the BN as led by the UMNO with 14 component parties will win a landslide victory with Chinese support. Push hard ! Push hard ! Shove and push hard ! The final victory awaits you BN and send all these intruders into the Straits of Singapore.

    ReplyDelete