The final list of nominees to represent the people of Johor has been finalised. Now the campaigning will start in earnest and come May 5th, we will be casting our votes to choose our representation at the Dewan Rakyat and Dewan Negeri.
I have previously shared my analysis of Johor's political landscape and how the opposition parties position themselves to win a number of Johor parliamentary seats in order to capture Putrajaya. I have always maintained that GE13 is not about capturing Johor per se, but to strengthen their Putrajaya bid.
Johor, Sarawak and Sabah became the Pact's frontline states because they have already captured all the possible parliamentary seats in the other states. It must also be noted that their strategy in Johor is different from what is being employed in Sabah and Sarawak, for obvious reasons.
The Pact's chances of winning are greatest in Johor's urban areas with outright Chinese majority, hence the safest seats for them would be Kulai, Bakri, Gelang Patah and Kluang. Except for Bakri, where the incumbent Er Teck Hwa is retained, DAP has brought in their elites to contest in Kulai, Gelang Patah and Kluang. I believe that as far as DAP is concerned, these are the 4 parliamentary seats they are confident of winning. DAP seems to be less confident of Labis, thus the uncertainty of who to field there. However, BN are fielding, in my estimation, winnable candidates in these five seats, and their chances are quite good despite the overwhelming advantage to the DAP.
PAS readily admit that their chances in Johor largely depend on Chinese support for Pakatan, hence they have more or less acknowledged that their chances are slim in all the other seats they are contesting in Johor. However, winning Pulai will be extremely difficult for PAS as they have yet to find any major chinks in BN's armor here that they can exploit. Their support among the Malays have also been severely eroded with recent events affecting their Islamic credibility. Their best chance will be Pulai, the only marginal seat contested by PAS, hence I expect PAS to focus the bulk of their campaigning for Pulai. However, the prognosis is gloomy for PAS in Pulai, and it's not any better in Nusajaya either.
PKR's best hopes are Segamat and Batu Pahat although of the two, PKR's chances in Batu Pahat is higher than in Segamat. In order to win, BN will have to really work hard in Chinese areas and Datuk Chua may need to campaign hard for BN in Batu Pahat instead of in Labis as BN is particular vulnerable for fielding an unpopular incumbent here. However, there is the matter of the hardworking Syed Hamid Ali who had been sidelined in favor of Idris Jusi, which may reduce PKR's chances in Batu Pahat.