Pagoh is simple because it is the TPM's division, and Tan Sri is the candidate for Pagoh. It is an outright Malay-majority constituency, and all the candidates here are Malays. BN is extremely strong here, no doubt BN will win all three seats of Pagoh, Jorak and Bukit Serampang. No doubt, I am certain. PKR and PAS got no chance here at all.
Moving to Ledang, my depression began. One of the reasons given by that Umno guy contesting as an independent was because he wanted to give Malay Umno voters an alternative to Asojan because Gambir is a Malay-majority seat. See? The polarisation have begun.
Then I got more depressed as I checked the reason that the new candidate to replace Dato Ghani in Serom is not getting acceptance - he is not a local of Serom, he resides in Gambir. Man ..... So now, not only must you be of a certain ethnic group, of the pervasive political persuasion, you must also be a local, i.e. within the boundary of the constituency. Isn't that nitpicking to the point of lunacy? The man was born in Sungai Mati, for goodness sake.
Then of course there are Muar and Bakri.
"We don't like the calon because he is not qualified to be the calon"
"Why is he not qualified?"
"Because we don't like him"
"Why don't you like him? What is the connection between your not liking him and him being unqualified?"
"He must be liked by voters. We are voters. We don't like him. So he is not qualified."
This from a bunch of people who allowed Er Teck Hwa to become their representative in Bakri in 2008.
I give up.