Getting updates on the political situation.
Now that I'm no longer in Johor, I have to rely on my few trusted friends for updates about my home state. Rest assured, their political knowledge about Johor were actually far superior than mine. I have been trying to persuade them to start their own blog, but they had declined. They are very busy people.
Ok, for this posting, I'm handing over this laptop to my friend whom I will introduce to you all as Purple Cat.
I have to warn you all though that my friend's presentation is very straight forward and rather colorless. Well, can't expect everyone to be colorful, right? Nonetheless, do bear in mind that Purple Cat's materials are very precise and well studied.
The following are Purple Cat's assessment -
Hi everyone. Thanks Big Cat for the introduction.
Let me start by pointing out that the Pakatan strategy will probably be all out to ensure a strong presence in Johor, so that they will perform better this time around and to solidify their position for GE14 where they aim to defeat BN in Johor.
They are not delusional enough to really think that they can win the state in the coming election, but they are highly confident of making inroads into Johor, capitalising on the substantial chinese support for DAP and the growing presence of middle-income PAS-inclined Malay liberals flocking the state.
Their strategy will most like be to add more seats - that is defend the existing one and work on specific targets. I remember a DAP cybertrooper by the nick of Kluang Girl once alluded in this blog to their belief that they can win 8 parliamentary seats and 20 state seats in Johor. I would like to expand on that and I think I have an idea where those seats are based on opposition activities these past 18 months.
However, this is my analysis based on my understanding of the situation in Johor presently.
1. Pakatan will ensure that they retain their existing constituencies - this is a no brainer.
So we will see DAP and PAS trying to hang on to their Bakri, Bentayan, Sungai Abong, Maharani, Senai, Mengkibol and Skudai seats. Unfortunately for PAS, this time around it is unlikely that Umno will be blind-sided in Maharani and Sungai Abong. I was reliably informed that Umno has completed their survey there and both Maharani and Sungai Abong will revert back to Umno. They are even confident of Bakri, but Bentayan is something else altogether, while Senai and Mengkibol will be difficult for MCA, and Skudai is almost impossible for Gerakan.
2. They will focus on Chinese-majority and marginal constituencies - obviously, as they have been sowing racial discord and dissatisfaction making everything into a race thing.
The Chinese-majority constituencies are the seats they are most confident of winning, really, whereas the marginal seats are where they can win through Malay disunity, and this is where PAS can play their role in delivering these marginal seats to PKR and DAP.
Kulai, Bakri and Gelang Patah are all constituencies with more than 50% Chinese voters. While DAP will retain Bakri, I think they will compromise and give Gelang Patah to PKR. You think LGE is going to give Dr Boo a strong base for his entry into national politics? I don't think so. He'd rather give Gelang Patah to PKR.
I am quite confident that DAP considers Skudai, Senai and Bukit Batu as their sure win seats but I think they will show a sense of solidarity in Kulai with PAS in Bukit Permai, PKR in Bukit Batu and DAP retaining Senai.
I doubt that PAS has a chance to win in Bukit Permai though. PAS role is not to win parliamentary or state seats but to break up the Malays so that DAP can win in Kulai through the dilution of Malay support for Umno, so that kinda fits my profiling of PAS in Johor. Nusajaya will be a sure loss for PAS, at least I think this DUN seat will go to PAS.
Next, with the most Chinese voters are Kluang (50%), Labis (47%), Tanjong Piai (47%), Segamat (46%) and Batu Pahat (46%). Kluang and Labis will be DAP seats, no question about it, but I think Batu Pahat will be contested by PKR. Why? There is something fishy going on there, and I think they are thinking of capitalising on the surge in the number of chinese voters in Penggaram. In order to appease the PAS voters and pre-dominantly conservative chinese DAP supporters, Batu Pahat will be contested by a PKR chinese candidate, I think, but not Chua Jui Meng. Turncoats and frogs are not popular among conservative chinese.
Even though Segamat is traditionally a DAP seat, I think this may be the place Chua Jui Meng will make his home for the coming GE, although I am not saying this with confidence. Well, he has a better chance of winning here than in Dr Boo's fortress in Gelang Patah or Chua Soi Lek's home of Batu Pahat, where he has to take on an Umno candidate as opposed to an MIC candidate in Segamat.
DAP will be fairly confident of Tanjong Piai and Pekan Nenas, despite losing quite badly there in 2008, DAP has a very strong base in Pekan Nenas (58% Chinese). DAP is also confident of winning Bekok (54%), Jementah (55%) and Penggaram (62%) as these are chinese-majority state constituencies. DAP will also be confident of Tangkak (53%).
With the state of Malay disunity, a very active PAS, and strife within Umno, I expect PKR will be targeting Muar and Ledang as their 'Malay-majority' seats in Johor. They have quite a bit of support among the Muor Malays, and substantial Chinese support in the urban seats of Maharani (42%) and Tangkak (52%). The problem with Muor is - Bakri too for that matter - the place is filled to the brim with the political elites, so much so that everyone thinks that he/she can be a better leader than everyone else, and they are not shy about voicing it, nor acting on it.
Ledang will be targeted by PKR simply because of its proximity with Muor means there is substantial support for the opposition especially in Gambir (40%) and Tangkak, and it is the Umno Division headed by Dato Abdul Ghani Othman. Strategic, I guess.
PKR is also confident of winning Puteri Wangsa (47%) as they have been very active here. There have been an increase of more than 58% of chinese voters in Puteri Wangsa (42% in Tebrau) that I am sure will boost PKR confidence in winning Puteri Wangsa. Probably this time around they will put non-indian candidates to take advantage of the substantial chinese and middle-income Malay voters there.
However, the increase in the number of Chinese voters in Tebrau is bad news for PAS.
Also bad news for PAS is the fact that other than Maharani and Sungai Abong, all the seats possibly allocated to them are Malay-majority areas where Umno is strong.
Although PAS has been active everywhere, they would be lucky to get allocated even one marginal constituency - of which Pulai (48%-41%-10%) is the most likely target for PAS as it is the only marginal constituency that neither DAP nor PKR wants. You think Salahudin Ayub can win this one?? He he he.... neither do I.
Oh, and the Pakatan's noises that they can win big in Johor.... so, what are the 8 parliamentary and 20 state seats they are targeting?
Here they are:
Gelang Patah (PKR)
Tanjong Piai (DAP)
Batu Pahat (PKR)
Yong Peng (DAP)
Bukit Batu (PKR)
Pekan Nenas (DAP)
Puteri Wangsa (PKR)
Johor Jaya (PKR)
Parit Raja (PAS)
Parit Yaani (PAS)
Sungai Abong (PAS)
They are listed in accordance to how confident they are of winning these seats. From that list and the order of confidence, you can see where I got the impression of PAS' role in the scheme of things.
At Parliament DAP 5 - PKR 3 - PAS 0
At State DAP 11 - PKR 5 - PAS 4
DAP is not just targeting the parliamentary seats... they are also targeting a bigger representation in the State Assembly, regardless of who the Mentri Besar is going to be. PAS is just the lackeys in Johor, and the crumbs they get they really have to work their butts off for. Johor is DAP's show, and not even DAP Johor's show.
The chinese are ready for change.
Come on Malay brothers.
Together we make a better Malaysia.
Not that Malaysia is bad now..its just not up to mark.
We should be up there like Singapore,Japan or Korea.
Dap will formed a state government ,team up with any seat worn by Mca ,Mic and Gerakan,of course Pakatan teem too.Delete
This is their strategy at national level too.
Really? then why are u still here?Delete
Thanks for the mention la Big Cat,ReplyDelete
Anyway the numbers was from a couple of months ago, now with Pengerang issue and the rebellious political mood in Singapore still simmering, let me say your forecast of UMNO absolute supremacy in Johor is surprising.
The waves of Chinese revolt will shake nearby mixed-seats like Pasir Gudang, Pulai & Johor Bahru. Don't underestimate the Chinese voters for PAS candidates in Johor nowadays...
By the way let me say this coming GE13, Azalina won't be able to buy her opponents off with walkovers like in 2004 & 2008. Pengerang seat can be an possible upset due to local factors. That i can guarantee. ;-)
Sometimes the over-confidence of state UMNO planners puzzled me in Johor. Still your self-denial is good la. Hehe
~ Kluang girl
alamak, at least you didn't write like the heretic Helen Ang. and stop pretending that you are such a poor UMNO blogger. stop showing or describing your maid's room....ReplyDelete
thanks for ur info... melayu atas pagar will thinking twice to vote PAS...ReplyDelete
Kuching Besar @ Purple Cat:ReplyDelete
Can you explain why the land to be acquired in Penggerang is 4 times the land needed for the project ? Petronas could not answer, so they asked us to contact the "relevant authorities". Since you are a BN blogger, can you check with your masters, and let us know ?
I don't need to check with anyone. Anybody with half a brain would know that there must be a buffer zone to ensure quality of life within residential zones will not be affected too much by industries in the industrial zone.Delete
Ya ke ? So what does the gomen propose to do with the buffer zone ? Why wasn't it part of the EIA ? What type of industry needs 4 times the project land area to protect against pollutants ?Delete
Better not cakap bohong....
I guess you are too stupid to understand development zoning, and too lazy to learn what the PIPC is all about. I am not in the habit of educating idiots, and I am not going to start now.Delete
So I assume you must be a town planning expert that tells the people in Penggerang that u can't be bothered with their idiocy...keep it up...Delete
Dear Purple Cat, try not to waste your time entertaining all these DAP cybermorons. There are too many of them commenting in my blog. This one just too idiotic that he doesnt even realised that he is an idiot. Just let them be, ok? Cheers :-)
Wah, big cat come to rescue purple cat. Two UMNO pussies on one body...living on a mattress on the floor ?Delete
Johor is going to lose many seats because of the typical BN attitude - at first deny, then when pressed, say they know better, the other side knows sh!t, and even when presented with the evidence finally says "so what?".Delete
What evidence do you have??Delete
Who are you kidding Kluang Girl? Pengerang won't fall to PR. This is not based on sentiment, mind you.ReplyDelete
- Gerila AMK Pengerang -
Attempts by BN to appease the Chinese like fund allocations for Chinese schools are useless. The Chinese will never appreciate that. They think the next election will be the best opportunity for power grab with the help from the stupid PAS. BN should concentrate on the Malays and Indians only.ReplyDelete
Worst come to worst, bring in Indonesians as citizens and put them in Chinese areas. Just like Singapore bringing Chinese from mainland China to counter high birth rate of its Malay population.
Abdolutely right. Bring in indons, banglas, Filipinos, mamaks....and elect One of them as your king....like the Mamakthir....Delete
Dumno are just like Utusan. Does Chinese has the power to bring in to increase the political power? For 50 years, DUMNO has increased the ketuanan and make those bumis in Sarawak and North Borneo into second division and make Pinoys and Indos first class giving them ICs.Delete
Hello the sabahab and sarawakian are first class citizen - no document coming to Peninsula....we the peninsula are actually the second class but hormati la Perlembagaan...full stopDelete
Cowok and Cewek are premium class. They just come to Johor, Melaka and Selangor as they like anytime no check in and check out like the East Malaysia. In fact DUMNO give them red carpet. Without them, Big Cat mentions Johor will fall like ten pins in the bowling.Delete
The best leaders for the melayus are those with Indian or Pakistani origins. They speak with forked tongues.ReplyDelete
oooi tu racist tu ....Delete
Excellent and focused analysis. Thanks for the insights from both of you, BC and PCReplyDelete
BC/PC - is there a reason why Permas is not included in the list? It was closer than a number of the other targets last time. Apologies if I have made a blunder in this comment.ReplyDelete
Permas will be contested by PAS but the make up of Permas is 52% Malay, 30% Chinese and 15% Indian, under the Pasir Gudang Division headed by Khaled Nordin, a federal minister. Not only will Umno be all out to ensure a BN victory, The MIC will fight all the way to ensure they have representation at the state assembly. This will be extremely tough for PAS and will only fall to them if there is a major fumble on the part of Umno Pasir Gudang, which I doubt will happen. Malu la, federal minister tak boleh jaga Malay-majority constituency.Delete
Habis lah, BN. All you can hope to win is the rural vote. The educated vote goes to regime change. I wonder why Azalina should proceed with pissing off the villagers and fishermen - they were BN supporters until they saw through the daylight robbery.ReplyDelete
The list is pakatan's.Delete
As I see it yg cerdik2 lagi pandai menilai keadaan semasa, constantly updating themselves wth current issues n following the performances of the Pakatan states, how the leaders perform, pelojek2 mereka bawa masuk like that wan la. 4yrs any progress made?Delete
Kasi tunjuk facts and figures la, eg soalan2 yg ditujukan oleh eg Blogger SatD, itu pun si Apek tu tak terjawab2, pandai pulak diam macam tikus. Pakatan Budget pun main balun, pluck figures atas langit ke?
Jgn pandang rendah atau hina orang kampung, keluarga2 fisherman pun ada dari kalangan cerdik2 macam N Normadiha.. generasi orang kampung masakini dah ramai dari golongan educated dan cun cun la ni tau tak?
Dream on PKR, dream onReplyDelete
Pru ke 13..paling untung melayu..sebab melayu akan bersatu..kami dah nampak cina punya politik game..mimpi la lu..orang cina akan rugi..sebab bila kami(melayu) menang nanti..kami akan jadikan cina malaysia macam cina indon..no more mother tongue language..ada faham..semua kena cakap melayu..sebab ini tanah melayu yang punya..kita sudah bagi lu muka banyak sangat..lu mau lebih pulak..boleh jalan la lu...ReplyDelete
Belajar lah pakai chopstick...kalau tidak, melayu tak akan maju....jual goreng pisang aje.....Delete
Tanah melayu di beli oleh orang cina dari s'pura dan negeri Cina.....Delete
Mau curi sampai Negara bankrap ? Nasi baik ade orang melayu yang take buta....yang erti niat jahat BN.Delete
cina malaysia sudah lupa ini negeri tanah melayu.Delete
masa untuk melayu faham erti cina di malaysia.
di tempat2 umum sudah ada papan tanda 'for non-muslims patrons only'
itu di selangor. melayu bangun dan sedar lah.
tempat yang haram, you nak pegi ? You nak masuk tempat yang jual arak, yang ade perempuan yang tak bertudung ? You nak masuk tempat yang jual makanan yang tak halal ? Kalau tak letakkan papan tanda "for non-Muslim patrons only" untuk menunjukkan tempat tu tak halal, tawke kena saman pulak....Delete
Bodoh betoi Anon 06:14
Ko la lagi bodoh, kami tak mahu tempat sebegitu, yg pasti kami dapat 2/3 korang ni kami bakul sampahkan jer..Delete
I am grooming my dog to be an election candidate wherever Hishamuddin Hussein is contesting in Johor and I have a good feeling that my dog will win hands-down against that idiot. No need for DAP or PAS to convince the voters.ReplyDelete
Saya penyokong PAS akan undi anjing awak kecuali Tok Guru Nik Aziz kata Haram Sokong Anjing Kerana Najis. Jika demikian saya akan undi DAP. Terima kaseh.Delete
For the state seat, I can have my cat "miow miow" contest. He promises to catch and expose all the rats.Delete
Thanks for comprehensive analysis on Johor politics.
If chinese still with their agenda to control and conquer Malaysia political and economy, using racist, religion and whatever `weapons' they have, will see the political distability of this country.
After the 13 GE, Johor state assembly will be facing tough fight between Chinese DAP and Malays Umno. Certainly, we will see a creation of state government based on racist.
If its really happen, rakyat especially the youngs, can learn it in difficult way. May be, this will be a good lesson for some ungrateful youngsters and profesionals.
DUMNO spending billions on National service still taking about race and religion? Of course not to be united Malaysians but money into the cookie jars.Delete
Any analysis on TS Shahrir Samad's Johor Bahru parliamentary seat?
Pakatan has not been very actively targeting Johor Bahru itself. Their activities are more targeted towards the surrounding areas of Tebrau, Pasir Gudang, Pulai, and Gelang Patah. Kulai is their base of operations.Delete
same same with Penang so why complaining.ReplyDelete
When the Dap do it in Penang macam ok but when others do it so so wrong....typical DAP....
Malaysia is good place to saty and the we will votwe BN coz janji di tepati and PR kaki tipu rakyat.......cakap lain buat lain.....as Rakyat biasa we are fed up and please Johoraean ont be a fool like us in Selangor...just cos we the Selangorian want a change like i do, we end up with the most messy state government ....cant wait for the next GE enough for 4 miserable four years......
KL or Selangor is messy? Just look at the taxis in KL. They just follow Dumno. Pocket here and here and jack up the price here and there. Taxis just follow Dumno to cari makan. See how Dumno turn KL into international city of potong leher as compare to other internaional city.Delete
Pengkomen paling bodoh dalam blog, konsisten giler..Delete
BN akan menang di Johor. DAP akan tambah kerusi. sudah dijangka...memandnagkan pola pengundian bangsa cina.ReplyDelete
Malays and Indian will solidly behind BN. No worries. with the support of Sabah & Serawak Bumipuetra's , Najib will definitey get 2/3 majority.
The most recent PRK shows Malays and Indian support to BN nearing 80% with Chinese hovering around 20-30 % support except in Kelantan where their support to BN pass the 40 % marks.
Orang Melayu perlu undi orang Melayu saja dari mana-mana parti.ReplyDelete
Kita tenguk personaliti bukan parti.
Kerana parti UMNO atau PAS atau PR boleh cakap apa saja tapi calon mereka boleh jadi malaun macam Melayu UMNO.
Melayu PAS macam Mat Sabu kongkek bini kawan macamm mana boleh undi? Boleh sebab tak ada empat saksi.
Anwar I kongkek amoi cina, boleh pilih, haram sebab ada video beribu mata dah tenguk.
Nik Aziz tak boleh dah tua sangat.
The more i read those comments from DAP cybertrooper the stronger i felt in giving my vote to BN. It is now my duty to ensure the whole family stand solidly behind BN come the next GE.ReplyDelete
its can be 2 possibility - either BN will rule with UMNO majority in BN state government OR, PR will rule with DAP majority in PR state government. Like Perak laReplyDelete